AI Revolution and The End of Work: How To Be Prepared?
The future is here and it looks kind of scary. A recent video published by the AI robotics company, Figure.
The video demonstrates the ability of a robot to identify voice, objects, and surroundings in addition to carrying out specific duties in the most sensible and acceptable manner, such as providing an apple when requested for an edible object.
We've had these robots for some time now, and artificial intelligence is not new either. But this AI Revolution is different. We're witnessing possibilities we thought wouldn't happen in our lifetime. In this blog, I'll explain what's going on with artificial intelligence and how it's about to change our jobs and lives forever.
Different types of AI
Artificial Intelligence or AI has gotten a lot of attention in recent times, but as I told you earlier this is not something new. For example, the Netflix algorithm that recommends the next movie to watch based on our viewing habits is a type of AI. Alexa, Siri, Google Assistant. They have all become a big part of our daily lives, influencing everything from our search results to our dating prospects. But they all belong to a category called Narrow AI. Means they are specialized to solve only one problem and complete one task at a time.
If you ask an industrial robot that attaches doors to cars in an assembly line to mop the floor, it will politely refuse and keep on fixing the doors. So although they can perform certain tasks better than humans, narrow AI can't completely replace us. This is where AGI or Artificial General Intelligence comes into the picture.
AGI can connect different pieces of information together to think and express more like a real person. And unlike narrow AI, they can understand, learn, and apply knowledge across different domains. And there already exists an AI model that comes very close to doing that. Chat GPT. You may have already heard about it. Chat GPT stands for Chat Generative Pre-Trained Transformer and was developed by an AI research company, called Open AI. It is capable of taking inputs in a human language and generating a response.
Basically, you ask Chat GPT a question, and it will give you an answer that sounds like a person. However, Chat GPT is called Generative AI rather than Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) because it lacks any inherent understanding of the response or the ability to further act upon it. AI systems that exist now have not yet risen to the level of AGI. Nobody knows when that will happen, but the humanoid robot from the Figure that we saw earlier is a step in that direction.
Humanoid Robots are not new and companies like Boston Dynamics, have already released models that can perform certain specific tasks. But what's new with the one from Figure is that it can, remember things, plan future steps, and explain why it's taking a particular action. They've essentially given a physical body to Chat GPT. For example, when the robot hears, "I'm hungry", it can scan its surroundings and offer the person the only edible thing present in the room, which is an apple. No one asked it to take an apple, the robot figured it out all by itself.
When we compare the state of the project two months ago and now, we can see the speed of progress when it comes to artificial intelligence. And with investments from major players such as Microsoft Open AI, and Intel money is not an issue. The point is thanks to better sensors and advancements in algorithms humanoid robots are getting smarter and are starting to look more like the ones in movies such as iRobot and Terminator.
But unlike in the movies, the real threat to our jobs and lives is not going to come from them. Humanoid robots, like the one from Future, are slow, have multiple points of failure, and are hard to make safe for regular use. At least for now. But what we have to understand is that AI doesn't have to look like a human to perform the tasks that a human does.
In any form, AI would bring about enormous social and economic changes that will significantly impact us in both positive and negative ways. So for each one of us working on a regular job that could possibly taken over by some algorithm in the future, it's important to know how this trend will impact us.
Impact
Beyond all the hype of doom and destruction, AI is also widely viewed as a driver of productivity and economic growth. AI systems are expected to bring an additional global economic activity of around $13 trillion in the foreseeable future and could double annual global economic growth rates by 2035.
Currently, manual labor contributes to half of the global GDP, which is approximately $42 trillion per year. As robots join the workforce and perform our jobs more efficiently, we can see a substantial increase in labor productivity. These robots won't take breaks, won’t get sick, won’t complain, and won’t need to be paid. And over time, robots will build other robots, thereby further reducing labor costs.
Eventually, the cost of hiring a human will equal the cost of renting a robot. And when that happens, human labor may become unnecessary.
In research done by the IMF, an estimated 60% of jobs in advanced economies, 40% in emerging economies, and 26% in low-income countries will be affected by AI. To all those who argue that new technology will bring new jobs just like in the times of the internet and electricity, the situation here is a bit different. Unlike during other periods of technological advancement, AI is being introduced to many different industries at the same time. This can cause a more widespread and immediate impact on jobs across different sectors.
And the crucial problem is not just creating new jobs. We have to create jobs that humans can perform better than algorithms. If you believe we outsmart robots because we have a soul and consciousness, just understand that to perform most jobs, intelligence is all that you need and consciousness is kind of optional. For instance, in the United States, truck driving is one of the most common jobs for men. A truck driver's daily experiences are much more meaningful compared to those of a self-driving truck, which doesn't feel anything at all.
The human driver can listen to music while navigating through busy streets and feel relief when he or she avoids an accident. But the system doesn’t need all that from a truck driver. All it really wants is to take goods from point A to point B as quickly, safely, and cheaply as possible. So most human qualities and abilities are simply irrelevant to most modern jobs. And AI needs to only outperform us in the specific skills a particular job demands.
However, there will still be certain areas where humans will maintain an edge over robots, at least for the near foreseeable future. These are the roles requiring qualities like empathy, creativity, and interpersonal skills. For example, jobs such as social workers, and therapists where a human touch and judgment are required. However, if you believe that humans will always have a unique edge over non-conscious algorithms you will be in for a surprise.
Other than affecting individual jobs there would also be a broader impact on the economy as a whole. New technologies often create a gap between people with certain skills who are in demand and those whose skills are no longer needed, leading to economic inequality. As algorithms push humans out of the job market, wealth and power might become concentrated in the hands of a few who own these algorithms. Those who cannot keep up with these technologies will be left behind.
Then there's a broader concern about the social impact as well. Once AI systems become more widespread, we might see the emergence of a large group of people who neither have jobs nor have any significant role in society.
Most people will struggle to learn the complex new skills that these systems demand. They won't just be unemployed; they'll be unable to find work altogether because AI can do almost everything better. In such a world, how to support these individuals becomes a crucial concern for governments and society.
How can we prepare?
Although there is a limit on how much we can do as an individual, there are still some ways to prepare for the dawn of AI. If you are in university, look out for courses that focus on artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data science to acquire relevant skills and knowledge in this field.
For those already in the workforce, it's important to regularly update your knowledge about the latest AI tools in your field and learn how to integrate them into your workflow. We will have to continually adapt and upskill ourselves to remain competitive in the job market.
Governments worldwide will need to do their part as well. The concept of work as a necessity for life may no longer apply and we’ll need solutions for people put out of work. The discussion around Universal Basic Income where the government provides all citizens a regular, unconditional sum of money to cover basic living costs will likely become more prominent.
Despite all the debates about the pros and cons, one thing is clear – AI and robotics are here to stay. Algorithms are not going to revolt and enslave us as in the movies. Instead, they'll become so good at making decisions on our behalf that it would be illogical not to follow their advice. In 2013, actress Angelina Jolie decided to undergo a double mastectomy after a genetic test revealed she carried a harmful mutation of the BRCA1 gene that can cause breast cancer. Even though she did not have cancer at that time, nor did she feel any pain or discomfort, she went with the advice of the computer algorithms that analyzed her genes.
As our life gets more integrated into the digital world, there will be AI systems that will know us much better than we know ourselves. So much so that we will rely on computers to make important life decisions rather than trusting our own judgments. When that happens, it can raise serious questions about the concept of free will and ultimately the meaning of life. Those will be harder problems to solve, and I hope we will be prepared to face them when the time comes.
